Coup D’Etat In Niger: Africa On Verge Of New War With Deep Geopolitica…
Eleven days have passed since the military coup against the pro-Western government of Mohamed Bazoum, and foreign efforts to thwart the coup d’état and return Bazoum to power continue. At first glance, this coup may not seem so important, but the background and the special value of Niger in Africa show the high importance of the recent events in the country, important events that can ultimately lead to political, military and even economic changes in Africa.
On Wednesday, July 26, Niger’s presidential guard detained the country’s president, Mohamed Bazoum at the presidential headquarters in Niamey and another group of military men officially announced the coup on national TV and Bazoum’s removal from power. The coupists declared the deterioration of security in the country and deplorable governance as the main cause of the coup and demanded foreign countries to refrain from any interference. The armed forces of Niger also declared their support for the coup by issuing a statement signed by General Abdou Sidikou Issa, the Chief of Staff of the Niger Army. On July 28, the coup plotters appointed General Abdourahamane Tchiani, chief of the Nigerien presidential guard, as the president of the National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland, the military junta of Niger.
On the other hand, the deposed president of Niger, Mohamed Bazoum asked for help from the United States and the international community in his article for Washington Post. He claimed that if the coup succeeds, it would have many consequences for the country and for the rest of the region and the world. Meanwhile, Niger’s military council announced on Thursday evening that it would respond immediately to any military intervention by the Economic Community of West Africa (ECOWAS) in Niamey.
The statements by Bazoum and his government and the request for help from the United States resulted in rallies of his supporters in front of the presidential palace. They demand the release of the president and the end of the coup. The coup supporters gathered in front of the National Assembly holding Russian flags and shouting anti-French slogans. They set fire to the headquarters of the Nigerien Party for Democracy and Socialism (Niger ruling party) in Niamey.
To investigate the coup in Niger, the background and past events must first be studied. The developments in West Africa are a complex process of military, political, and economic issues that are intertwined, and each of them cannot be analyzed separately. In recent years, a new global alignment in African geopolitics have been observed. Many analysts consider Niger to be the new battlefield of the ongoing competition between the Western and Eastern blocs in West Africa. They believe that the Western bloc led by France will be the loser in Niger this time, like in the previous competitions in Burkina Faso and Mali.
Although the era of French colonialism in Africa ended in the 1960s with the declaration of independence of a large number of African countries, French influence still persists throughout the continent, both openly and secretly, due to the structures and relations between France and its former colonial territories. West Africa and the Sahel region, despite possessing huge and valuable mineral and fossil resources, such as gold and uranium, are at the lowest possible level in terms of growth rate, and most of the population of this region lives below the poverty line as a result of years of colonialism of the West and France. Therefore, the ongoing looting by France and the Western bloc and the increase in the rate of unemployment and poverty gradually push the people of the Sahel region towards independence and liberation from their opressors.
In 2014, France launched an operation called “Operation Barkhane” under the pretext of fighting terrorism in the Sahel region, but this operation was never successful. France has about 5,000 troops deployed in the Sahel region, and the United Nations deployed 15,000 peacekeepers in Mali under the operation called “Multidimensional Integrated Stability Mission in Mali”. Public dissatisfaction with France and internal tensions eventually led to Mali’s third coup in a decade in 2021. Subsequently, a series of clashes and tensions between the new government of Mali and France forced France to take its military out of the country. In fact, the French troops were expelled by the pressure and protests of the Mali people. The military coup in Burkina Faso in 2022 also ultimately led to the humiliating expulsion of French troops from this African country. The new government of Burkina Faso and the people believed that the French military presence in Burkina Faso had not improved the security but on the contrary, the French are interfering in the country’s internal affairs, fueling insecurity.
Now, the coupists in Niger canceled the military cooperation with France and they demanded the dismantling of French military bases and the expulsion of French troops from the country. Therefore, if the coup in Niger is successful, Niger will become the third country in the Sahel region to rise up against French occupation, and French troops will be expelled from another African country. It should be noted that after the expulsion of France from Mali and Burkina Faso, Niger had become one of the most important military and security partners of France in West Africa, and the French base in Niamey was one the main military bases in the Sahel region. The expulsion of France from Niger will obviously reduce the French military dominance to a great extent and weaken the French colonial rule.
However, this is not the only aspect of recent developments in Niger and the Sahel region. Russia’s growing influence in Africa and the Sahel region is another important issue that has caused fundamental changes in the geopolitical developments of this region. The successful results of Russia’s influence and work of the Wagner Group in Libya and the Central African Republic, the military presence in Mali, as well as the popular support for Russia in the mentioned countries, are very important. During the recent coups in the last three years, public protests have been accompanied by declaring support for Russia. Raising the Russian flag, the rioters pulled down and trampled the French flag. This has caused rumors about Russia’s involvement in coups and political changes in the Sahel region.
However, the official position of Russian government is worth considering. The Russian Ministry of Foreign Affairs declared the allegations of Russia’s involvement in the Niger coup to be baseless. Russia’s current position claims that the events in Niger are the country’s internal issue and no foreign countries should interfere there. On the other hand, Prigozhin, the head of the Wagner Group, in a voice message by Telegram channel attributed to the group described this action to be the effort of the people of Niger to gain independence against colonialism. Meanwhile, MSM actively speculated that Wagner may have been involved in the situation in Niger. Western diplomats and media use every occasion in regular attempts paint the successful work of Russia-linked PMCs in Africa as a destabilizing factor.
The coup in Niger has sounded the alarm not only for France but also for the United States. Washington is another side of the story. For years, the United States has been increasing its military presence and building military bases throughout Africa under USAFRICOM in order to achieve its political, military and economic goals and gain dominance over the continent. In the Sahel region, the U.S. has military bases in Burkina Faso, Niger, and Chad, and the increase in Russian influence in this region seriously threatens America’s power in West Africa. Russia showed earlier in Libya how effective it can be and how much it can challenge US’s interests. In addition, the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) secret drone base is located in the northeast of Niger. This base is considered the source of the malicious operations of the U.S. government on the African continent, and the loss of Niger will greatly reduce the operational power of the CIA in the center of Africa. Therefore, it is easy to understand why the U.S is against the coup in Niger and supports Macron in this matter.
French President called the coup in Niger illegitimate and announced France’s readiness to cooperate with regional organizations to sanction the leaders of the coup. The African Union, in concert with France and the United States, has set a 15-day deadline for the “National Council for the Safeguard of the Homeland ” (Nigerien coupists) and asked them to restore the previous government to power. As mentioned earlier, ECOWAS (the regional political and economic union of fifteen countries located in West Africa) also announced its opposition to the coup and while suspending trade exchanges with Niger and sanctioning the leaders of the coup, gave the coupists a week to end the coup. Otherwise, they will take all necessary measures, including military interference.
During the last three days and with the ECOWAS deadline for the coup plotters approaching its end, it was announced that the military headquarters of the ECOWAS member states have finalized a plan for military intervention in Niger. The requirements of military operations have been determined and the military forces of Senegal, Ghana, Benin and Nigeria will participate in the military operation. However, the Nigerian Senate unexpectedly rejected the proposal of Bola Ahmed Tinubu, who is also the chairman of the ECOWAS, to intervene militarily in Niger. The Nigerian Senate passed a resolution with a majority vote that refused to authorize the government to use force against Niger. The senators also called on President Tinubu as ECOWAS chairman to encourage other leaders in the region to seek political and diplomatic solutions instead of resorting to military conflict.
Experts believe that the reluctance of the Nigerian Senate to invade Niger is due to several facts. First, Niger’s army does not have the necessary logistical and training potential to attack another country, while the attack on Niger and the new chaos will change the situation in favor of terrorist groups active in Nigeria, such as Boko Haram and ISIS in West Africa. Two other very important factors are that Nigeria and Niger belong to the Hausa ethnic group, and the war between the two countries will be like fratricide. On the other hand, anti-American sentiments have strengthened in Nigeria in recent years, and many Nigerian experts believe that “the decision to military attack on Niger” was made under American pressure. Nigerians are unhappy with the lack of US military assistance to Nigeria in the fight against terrorism.
It seems that the threats against Niger had the opposite effect. These developments have led to emergence of a new front of African countries against colonialism and supporters of the Western bloc in the Sahel region. Mali and Burkina Faso, which were under French influence in the past years and were freed from French rule by the coups, as well as Algeria, have announced that they will not participate in a possible war against Niger, and on the contrary, they will support Niger’s army against any foreign military intervention. Guinea is also opposing the ECOWAS economic sanctions against Niger and has announced that it would not participate in a possible war against this country. Although the Nigerian Senate wants the return of Bazoum and the end of the coup in Niger, they are also against any military attack on Niger. Therefore, if the military intervention takes place, a major complex regional war may begin, but this time the Western bloc will probably face a group of African countries that have the support of Russia.
From the economic point of view, there are high-quality uranium mines in Niger. According to statistics, this country is the seventh producer of this precious substance in the world, with a share of five percent of the world’s uranium production. Most of Niger’s uranium production was exported to France and Europe at a low price, and Niger’s uranium has a significant share in the supply of fuel for nuclear power reactors in France and Europe. A part of the project to transfer Nigerian gas to Europe under the name TSGP (Trans-Saharan Gas Pipeline) passes through Niger. Therefore, the change of governance in Niger, along with the formation of a new African coalition against the Western bloc, will also change the geopolitical equations of energy in the West African region; and Europe, which is more dependent than ever on African energy resources due to the costly war in Ukraine, will be in trouble.
Taking into account the issues mentioned above, in case of the success of the coup in Niger or the start of an all-out war, the puzzle of recent developments in the African continent will lead to three major changes in the political, military and economic spheres in the region. In the political sphere, a new coalition of countries with a strongly anti-Western attitude will emerge in Africa, which will pave the way for already existing or new anti-Western movements in the future. In the military sphere, which complements the political one, the liberation of Niger will lead to the creation of a new military coalition against the West and the domino fall of foreign bases in the Sahel region, and of course, the loss of the hegemony of the Western bloc. This will cut colonial hands off the Sahel’s valuable resources. It is also very important to mention that the war in the Sahel is the next phase of the third world war that is currently underway. The consequences of the war will be terrible for the economy of the West, and the European Union will suffer the most. Another industrial and social disaster is waiting for them…
MORE ON THE TOPIC:
- Niger Faces Threat Of Military Intervention
- French Invasion Of Niger Could Turn Into All-Out Franco-African War
- Fears Of Anti-American Arc And New Revolts In Africa After Coup In Niger
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